Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Monday, 19 October, MSK
Bahia — Flamengo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 19 October
In short
Evenly matched: Bahia 33%, Flamengo 39%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bahia — Flamengo What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Bahia not to lose | 61% | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Handicap Bahia
- Bahia goals
- Flamengo goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 12.10Mirassol1:0
- 09.10away · Palmeiras0:1
- 21.09away · Athletico Paranaense1:2
- 15.09Remo2:1
- 05.09away · RB Bragantino3:2
- 11.10Fluminense1:0
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
Head to head
- 20.04.2026Flamengo — Bahia2:0
- 06.10.2025Bahia — Flamengo1:0
- 11.05.2025Flamengo — Bahia1:0
- 06.10.2024Bahia — Flamengo0:2
- 13.09.2024Flamengo — Bahia1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- 333038XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →