Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 10 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Casa Pia AC — Sporting CP
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sporting CP are clear favourites: 75% against 8% for the opponent, draw 17%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting CP are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Casa Pia AC — Sporting CP What is xG? | 0.7–2.2 | |
| Casa Pia AC not to lose | 25% | |
| Sporting CP not to lose | 92% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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- Handicap Casa Pia AC
- Casa Pia AC goals
- Sporting CP goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Santa Clara0:1
- 20.09away · Estoril2:1
- 12.09FC Porto1:4
- 06.09away · Vitória de Guimarães0:0
- 30.08Moreirense0:1
- 13.10away · Lens2:0
- 09.10away · Braga3:1
- 19.09Arouca2:2
- 13.09away · Famalicão1:1
- 09.09Galatasaray3:1
Head to head
- 16.01.2026Sporting CP — Casa Pia AC3:0
- 08.08.2025Casa Pia AC — Sporting CP0:2
- 09.03.2025Casa Pia AC — Sporting CP1:3
- 05.10.2024Sporting CP — Casa Pia AC2:0
- 29.01.2024Sporting CP — Casa Pia AC8:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Estoril | 8 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →