Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo
Ceará — Criciúma
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1:0Missed
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Ceará 36%, Criciúma 33%, draw 31%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ceará — Criciúma What is xG? | 1.0–1.0 | |
| Ceará not to lose | 67% | |
| Criciúma not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 33% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 67% |
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- Ceará goals
- Criciúma goals
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Form
- 03.10away · Avaí1:0
- 26.09away · Operário-PR2:2
- 19.09Novorizontino2:1
- 14.09away · Fortaleza1:1
- 10.09away · Atlético-GO1:2
- 03.10away · Londrina2:0
- 27.09Avaí3:0
- 23.09Operário-PR0:2
- 13.09away · Atlético-GO0:4
- 09.09Juventude0:2
Head to head
- 16.06.2026Criciúma — Ceará1:1
- 02.09.2023Ceará — Criciúma1:0
- 21.05.2023Criciúma — Ceará1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 33 | 15 | +10 | 57 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | +6 | 56 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Atlético-GO | 33 | 14 | +10 | 53 |
| 14 | Náutico | 33 | 11 | -3 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceará | 33 | 11 | -5 | 42 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 33 | 11 | -1 | 41 |
Next matches
- CriciúmaAmérica-MG13 October · Brasileirao Serie B6721111The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- Botafogo SPCeará13 October · Brasileirao Serie B4329281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.2
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 2427492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →