A-League Men (Australia), round 1 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Central Coast Mariners — Newcastle Jets
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In short
Newcastle Jets are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Newcastle Jets are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners — Newcastle Jets What is xG? | 1.5–2.0 | |
| Central Coast Mariners not to lose | 51% | |
| Newcastle Jets not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners goals
- Newcastle Jets goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 25.04away · Newcastle Jets0:4
- 19.04away · Auckland FC1:0
- 10.04Brisbane Roar FC2:2
- 07.04away · Melbourne City FC1:2
- 04.04Perth Glory2:2
- 16.05Sydney FC1:1
- 09.05away · Sydney FC1:1
- 25.04Central Coast Mariners4:0
- 17.04away · Melbourne Victory2:2
- 11.04Adelaide United1:1
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Newcastle Jets — Central Coast Mariners4:0
- 28.02.2026Central Coast Mariners — Newcastle Jets0:0
- 19.10.2025Central Coast Mariners — Newcastle Jets3:2
- 12.04.2025Newcastle Jets — Central Coast Mariners6:0
- 01.02.2025Central Coast Mariners — Newcastle Jets2:2
A-League on the same day
- 4328281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →