J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Cerezo Osaka — JEF United Chiba
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cerezo Osaka are clear favourites: 54% against 21% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cerezo Osaka are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cerezo Osaka — JEF United Chiba What is xG? | 1.9–1.2 | |
| Cerezo Osaka not to lose | 79% | |
| JEF United Chiba not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka goals
- JEF United Chiba goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
- 19.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 12.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:6
- 06.09Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 02.09Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 11.10V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 19.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 13.09away · Tokyo Verdy1:1
- 06.09Gamba Osaka2:0
- 02.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Nagoya GrampusYokohama F.Marinospreliminary4127321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Urawa Red DiamondsV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary5425211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- FC TokyoMito Hollyhockpreliminary6422141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Kawasaki FrontaleFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →