Liga MX (Mexico), round 13 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Chivas — Necaxa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Chivas are clear favourites: 65% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chivas are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chivas — Necaxa What is xG? | 2.2–1.0 | |
| Chivas not to lose | 86% | |
| Necaxa not to lose | 35% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Chivas
- Chivas goals
- Necaxa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Atlas1:1
- 27.09Querétaro FC0:2
- 20.09away · CF América2:2
- 14.09Pumas3:0
- 06.09away · Atlético de San Luis3:0
- 12.10away · Pachuca3:3
- 28.09CF América2:4
- 20.09away · Atlético de San Luis1:3
- 12.09Puebla0:1
- 06.09away · Tigres1:1
Head to head
- 23.04.2026Necaxa — Chivas0:0
- 24.09.2025Chivas — Necaxa3:1
- 18.01.2025Necaxa — Chivas3:2
- 23.10.2024Chivas — Necaxa3:2
- 21.02.2024Necaxa — Chivas1:0
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- Atlético de San LuisQuerétaro FCpreliminary3928331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FC JuárezAtlantepreliminary3529372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- TigresLeónpreliminary5824181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →