Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Tuesday, 20 October, 02:00 MSK

Corinthians — Vitória

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Model prediction for 20 October

Corinthians57%

Draw26%

Vitória18%

Model estimate at 08:42 MSK

In short

Corinthians are clear favourites: 57% against 18% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

By the strength ratings Corinthians are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Corinthians — Vitória What is xG?		1.6–0.8
Corinthians not to lose		82%
Vitória not to lose		43%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		45%
Both teams to score: no		55%
Total over 2.5		42%
Total under 2.5		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Corinthians
Corinthians goals
Vitória goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Corinthians

11.10away · Palmeiras1:4
08.10away · Internacional1:2
20.09Fluminense1:3
17.09Estudiantes0:1
13.09away · Flamengo1:2

Vitória

11.10away · São Paulo1:2
08.10Chapecoense4:0
20.09Cruzeiro1:3
13.09away · Mirassol2:2
08.09Grêmio1:0

Head to head

19.04.2026Vitória — Corinthians0:0
25.10.2025Vitória — Corinthians0:1
02.06.2025Corinthians — Vitória0:0
09.11.2024Vitória — Corinthians1:2
05.07.2024Corinthians — Vitória3:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12	Botafogo	30	9	9	12	43–48	-5	36
13	Vitória	30	10	6	14	33–44	-11	36
14	Vasco da Gama	29	9	8	12	36–42	-6	35
16	Internacional	30	7	11	12	33–38	-5	32
17, Relegation	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	31–38	-7	32
18, Relegation	Grêmio	30	7	10	13	32–40	-8	31

Season 2026

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →