Polish Ekstraklasa, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Cracovia — Legia Warszawa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Evenly matched: Cracovia 36%, Legia Warszawa 35%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cracovia — Legia Warszawa What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Cracovia not to lose | 65% | |
| Legia Warszawa not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cracovia
- Cracovia goals
- Legia Warszawa goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Zagłębie Lubin3:1
- 19.09away · GKS Katowice2:3
- 13.09away · Wisła Płock1:3
- 06.09Górnik Zabrze0:1
- 29.08away · Radomiak Radom1:2
- 11.10Wisła Kraków2:0
- 20.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
- 13.09Widzew Łódź1:1
- 05.09away · Motor Lublin3:2
- 28.08Śląsk Wrocław1:1
Head to head
- 08.03.2026Legia Warszawa — Cracovia1:0
- 31.08.2025Cracovia — Legia Warszawa2:1
- 18.05.2025Cracovia — Legia Warszawa3:1
- 23.11.2024Legia Warszawa — Cracovia3:2
- 20.12.2023Cracovia — Legia Warszawa2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | +10 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 9 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- 3930311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →