Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Estádio Heriberto Hülse
Criciúma — América-MG
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Criciúma to win (67%), came true.
Criciúma are clear favourites: 67% against 11% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 39%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Criciúma are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Criciúma — América-MG What is xG? | 1.8–0.6 | |
| Criciúma not to lose | 89% | |
| América-MG not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 39% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 61% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Form
- 09.10away · Ceará0:1
- 03.10away · Londrina2:0
- 27.09Avaí3:0
- 23.09Operário-PR0:2
- 13.09away · Atlético-GO0:4
- 08.10Fortaleza0:1
- 03.10away · Atlético-GO0:2
- 29.09Juventude0:1
- 19.09away · Vila Nova0:1
- 15.09São Bernardo0:2
Head to head
- 24.06.2026América-MG — Criciúma0:1
- 13.10.2025Criciúma — América-MG2:1
- 21.06.2025América-MG — Criciúma1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 33 | 15 | +10 | 57 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | +6 | 56 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Atlético-GO | 33 | 14 | +10 | 53 |
| 18, Relegation | Londrina | 33 | 7 | -7 | 29 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
| 20, Relegation | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | -55 | 13 |
Next matches
- América-MGOperário-PR18 October · Brasileirao Serie B3427392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
- São BernardoCriciúma18 October · Brasileirao Serie B363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:11.9
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 89831The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:0.3.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →