La Liga, round 10 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Deportivo Alavés — Málaga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Deportivo Alavés are clear favourites: 63% against 13% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportivo Alavés are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Deportivo Alavés — Málaga What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Deportivo Alavés not to lose | 87% | |
| Málaga not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Deportivo Alavés
- Deportivo Alavés goals
- Málaga goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Atlético Madrid1:2
- 19.09away · Athletic Club0:0
- 15.09Valencia0:1
- 12.09away · Racing Santander1:2
- 06.09Osasuna5:2
- 09.10Espanyol1:1
- 20.09away · Getafe0:1
- 17.09Villarreal1:3
- 13.09away · Celta Vigo1:1
- 06.09Levante0:0
Head to head
- 20.05.2023Deportivo Alavés — Málaga2:1
- 18.12.2022Málaga — Deportivo Alavés1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo A Coruña | 8 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 8 | 1 | -9 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 8 | 0 | -9 | 4 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →