Segunda Division, round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Eibar — Mallorca

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Model prediction for 17 October

Eibar46%
Draw30%
Mallorca24%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Eibar are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.

The model expects few goals: 1.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 30%, both teams to score — 38%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Eibar are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Eibar — Mallorca What is xG?1.1–0.8
Eibar not to lose76%
Mallorca not to lose54%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes38%
Both teams to score: no62%
Total over 2.530%
Total under 2.570%

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  • Handicap Eibar
  • Eibar goals
  • Mallorca goals
  • Corners and cards
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Form

Eibar

  • 12.10away · Real Oviedo1:3
  • 03.10away · Albacete3:1
  • 27.09Las Palmas3:2
  • 19.09away · Eldense2:1
  • 14.09away · Celta Fortuna4:0

Mallorca

  • 11.10Las Palmas3:1
  • 04.10away · Girona0:0
  • 27.09Almería0:1
  • 19.09away · Real Sociedad B1:0
  • 13.09Sabadell2:0

Head to head

  • 05.01.2022Eibar — Mallorca1:2
  • 07.03.2020Eibar — Mallorca1:2
  • 17.08.2019Mallorca — Eibar2:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionAlmería970216–5+1121
2, PromotionEibar970219–10+921
3, Promotion play-offsCastellón962115–4+1120
4, Promotion play-offsMallorca952211–4+717
5, Promotion play-offsSabadell944110–7+316

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →