Bundesliga, round 8 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Elversberg — Mainz 05
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Mainz 05 are slightly stronger: 39% against 31%, draw 31%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mainz 05 are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Elversberg — Mainz 05 What is xG? | 1.5–1.7 | |
| Elversberg not to lose | 61% | |
| Mainz 05 not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Elversberg
- Elversberg goals
- Mainz 05 goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Union Berlin0:1
- 20.09away · Schalke 040:0
- 13.09Bayern München1:2
- 05.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 29.08Bayer Leverkusen3:2
- 10.10Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 19.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 12.09Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
- 06.09away · Hamburger SV5:0
- 29.08Paderborn0:0
Head to head
- 12.08.2023Elversberg — Mainz 050:1
- 08.08.2021Elversberg — Mainz 052:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →