La Liga, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Espanyol — Atlético Madrid
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Atlético Madrid are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Madrid are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Espanyol — Atlético Madrid What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Espanyol not to lose | 52% | |
| Atlético Madrid not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap Espanyol
- Espanyol goals
- Atlético Madrid goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 09.10away · Málaga1:1
- 18.09Elche1:3
- 15.09away · Rayo Vallecano1:2
- 12.09away · Osasuna2:0
- 06.09Sevilla1:1
- 13.10Manchester United2:0
- 10.10away · Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 20.09Real Madrid2:1
- 16.09Osasuna4:0
- 13.09away · Real Sociedad3:0
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Atlético Madrid — Espanyol4:2
- 17.08.2025Espanyol — Atlético Madrid2:1
- 29.03.2025Espanyol — Atlético Madrid1:1
- 28.08.2024Atlético Madrid — Espanyol0:0
- 24.05.2023Espanyol — Atlético Madrid3:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | +27 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
La Liga on the same day
- 7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- 1825562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- 383131XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →