Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Estoril — Moreirense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Estoril are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Estoril are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Estoril — Moreirense What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Estoril not to lose | 72% | |
| Moreirense not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Estoril
- Estoril goals
- Moreirense goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10away · Académico Viseu1:2
- 20.09Casa Pia AC1:2
- 14.09away · Braga0:1
- 07.09Arouca0:0
- 31.08away · Benfica1:2
- 09.10Gil Vicente0:1
- 20.09away · Vitória de Guimarães1:1
- 14.09Marítimo3:1
- 09.09Benfica0:4
- 04.09away · FC Porto1:2
Head to head
- 20.04.2026Moreirense — Estoril1:0
- 07.12.2025Estoril — Moreirense3:3
- 11.05.2025Moreirense — Estoril2:2
- 28.12.2024Estoril — Moreirense2:2
- 18.05.2024Moreirense — Estoril2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | Estoril | 8 | 0 | -8 | 2 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- NacionalBragapreliminary1827552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Rio AveFamalicãopreliminary2630442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- Sporting CPAcadémico Viseupreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →