Russian Cup, round 5 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
Fakel — FK Akhmat
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FK Akhmat are clear favourites: 49% against 26% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FK Akhmat are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fakel — FK Akhmat What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Fakel not to lose | 51% | |
| FK Akhmat not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fakel
- Fakel goals
- FK Akhmat goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · FC Krasnodar2:0
- 10.10Lokomotiv Moscow0:5
- 16.09away · Spartak Moscow0:1
- 12.09Baltika2:2
- 05.09away · FC Rostov1:3
- 11.10Baltika0:0
- 17.09away · Akron Togliatti0:2
- 13.09Dynamo Makhachkala3:2
- 07.09away · Rubin Kazan1:1
- 03.09away · Dinamo Moscow0:3
Head to head
- 18.08.2026FK Akhmat — Fakel2:1
- 10.08.2026Fakel — FK Akhmat0:0
- 05.04.2025Fakel — FK Akhmat0:0
- 18.10.2024FK Akhmat — Fakel2:3
- 25.05.2024Fakel — FK Akhmat2:0
Russian Cup on the same day
- FC KrasnodarDinamo Moscowpreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →