Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Farense — AD Marco 09
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Farense are clear favourites: 70% against 11% for the opponent, draw 19%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Farense are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Farense — AD Marco 09 What is xG? | 2.3–0.8 | |
| Farense not to lose | 89% | |
| AD Marco 09 not to lose | 30% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Farense
- Farense goals
- AD Marco 09 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · Sacavenense1:0
- 17.12Benfica0:2
- 23.11Silves FC5:1
- 18.10away · AD Marco 093:0
- 20.09away · Vidago FC2:0
Head to head
- 18.10.2025AD Marco 09 — Farense0:3
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- 1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- 3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- 2926452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 1622622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →