Brazilian Serie A, round 32 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
Flamengo — Atlético-MG
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Flamengo are clear favourites: 69% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Flamengo — Atlético-MG What is xG? | 2.0–0.8 | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 89% | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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Form
- 11.10Fluminense1:0
- 09.10away · Santos2:2
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
- 11.10Santos2:1
- 09.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:2
- 04.10RB Bragantino1:0
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
Head to head
- 27.04.2026Atlético-MG — Flamengo0:4
- 26.11.2025Atlético-MG — Flamengo1:1
- 07.08.2025Atlético-MG — Flamengo0:1
- 01.08.2025Flamengo — Atlético-MG0:1
- 28.07.2025Flamengo — Atlético-MG1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- CoritibaGrêmiopreliminary4328281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →