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UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · RAMS Park

Galatasaray — Barcelona

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Model prediction and result

1:4Came true
Galatasaray24%
Draw25%
Barcelona51%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Barcelona to win (51%), came true.

Barcelona are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Barcelona are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Barcelona: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Galatasaray — Barcelona What is xG?1.1–1.7
Galatasaray not to lose49%
Barcelona not to lose76%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Galatasaray
  • Galatasaray goals
  • Barcelona goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Galatasaray

  • 09.10Kasımpaşa3:1
  • 19.09away · Trabzonspor0:4
  • 13.09Kocaelispor1:0
  • 09.09away · Sporting CP1:3
  • 04.09away · Başakşehir3:2

Barcelona

  • 10.10Getafe3:0
  • 19.09away · Sevilla3:1
  • 16.09Racing Santander7:2
  • 13.09away · Levante4:2
  • 09.09Feyenoord5:1

Head to head

  • 17.03.2022Galatasaray — Barcelona1:2
  • 10.03.2022Barcelona — Galatasaray0:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Straight to the round of 16Barcelona22009–2+76
2, Straight to the round of 16Sporting CP22005–1+46
33Feyenoord10011–5-40
34Galatasaray20022–7-50
35Slovan Bratislava10011–6-50

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • GençlerbirliğiGalatasaray17 October · Super Lig
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
  • Real BetisBarcelona17 October · La Liga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5

Champions League on the same day

  • LensSporting CP
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • Sabah FKSlavia Prague
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
  • InterClub Brugge
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
  • ArsenalLille
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
  • Atlético MadridManchester United
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • VillarrealNapoli
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
  • VikingBayern München
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →