Copa do Brasil (Brazilian Cup), playoff · Monday, 2 November, MSK
Grêmio — Atlético-MG
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 2 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético-MG are slightly stronger: 47% against 27%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Grêmio — Atlético-MG What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Grêmio not to lose | 53% | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Grêmio
- Grêmio goals
- Atlético-MG goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Internacional1:1
- 08.10away · Remo1:1
- 20.09Palmeiras0:0
- 17.09away · Botafogo2:3
- 12.09Vasco da Gama1:2
- 11.10Santos2:1
- 09.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:2
- 04.10RB Bragantino1:0
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
Head to head
- 16.08.2026Atlético-MG — Grêmio3:0
- 26.02.2026Grêmio — Atlético-MG2:1
- 17.08.2025Atlético-MG — Grêmio1:3
- 30.03.2025Grêmio — Atlético-MG2:1
- 10.10.2024Atlético-MG — Grêmio2:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →