Swedish Allsvenskan, round 23 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · 3Arena
Hammarby — Djurgården
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0:1Missed
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Hammarby to win (53%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.
Hammarby are clear favourites: 53% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hammarby are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hammarby — Djurgården What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| Hammarby not to lose | 77% | |
| Djurgården not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Degerfors1:0
- 13.09Brommapojkarna3:1
- 06.09away · Örgryte1:1
- 30.08away · AIK2:3
- 23.08GAIS2:0
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Djurgården — Hammarby1:1
- 14.09.2025Djurgården — Hammarby3:3
- 13.04.2025Hammarby — Djurgården2:0
- 21.10.2024Hammarby — Djurgården2:0
- 02.06.2024Djurgården — Hammarby0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Sirius | 23 | 17 | +25 | 54 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Djurgården | 23 | 14 | +27 | 44 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Hammarby | 23 | 13 | +28 | 43 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | +13 | 40 |
Next matches
- BrommapojkarnaDjurgården16 October · Allsvenskan2125532The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Halmstads BKHammarby18 October · Allsvenskan1018732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.4
Allsvenskan on the same day
- 7317101The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →