Bundesliga, round 7 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen What is xG? | 1.4–1.9 | |
| Hoffenheim not to lose | 50% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim goals
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Hamburger SV2:3
- 20.09away · Paderborn1:3
- 17.09away · OFI Crete0:2
- 12.09VfB Stuttgart2:1
- 05.09Borussia Dortmund2:3
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 05.09Union Berlin4:0
Head to head
- 17.01.2026Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen1:0
- 23.08.2025Bayer Leverkusen — Hoffenheim1:2
- 02.02.2025Bayer Leverkusen — Hoffenheim3:1
- 14.09.2024Hoffenheim — Bayer Leverkusen1:4
- 30.03.2024Bayer Leverkusen — Hoffenheim2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | -11 | 0 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- FreiburgBayern Münchenpreliminary1120692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →