Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Independiente Medellín — Once Caldas
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Independiente Medellín are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente Medellín are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente Medellín — Once Caldas What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Independiente Medellín not to lose | 80% | |
| Once Caldas not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente Medellín
- Independiente Medellín goals
- Once Caldas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · América de Cali2:1
- 06.10Santa Fe0:1
- 30.09Millonarios2:2
- 27.09away · Junior FC0:2
- 23.09CD Jaguares2:1
- 10.10Llaneros FC1:0
- 05.10away · Internacional de Bogotá1:1
- 26.09Bucaramanga1:3
- 20.09away · Deportivo Pasto0:1
- 17.09Tolima1:0
Head to head
- 03.04.2026Once Caldas — Independiente Medellín1:1
- 14.10.2025Once Caldas — Independiente Medellín1:5
- 20.04.2025Independiente Medellín — Once Caldas2:0
- 29.09.2024Once Caldas — Independiente Medellín0:2
- 17.03.2024Independiente Medellín — Once Caldas1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 9 | Cúcuta | 13 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →