Argentine Liga Profesional · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Juan Domingo Perón
Instituto — Boca Juniors
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2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Instituto to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Instituto are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Instituto — Boca Juniors What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Instituto not to lose | 72% | |
| Boca Juniors not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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- Handicap Instituto
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Form
- 03.10away · Independiente4:1
- 20.09Talleres3:1
- 15.09Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2:1
- 08.09away · Unión2:3
- 01.09San Lorenzo1:0
- 03.10Unión3:0
- 27.09away · Racing Club3:2
- 20.09away · San Lorenzo2:0
- 16.09away · São Paulo1:1
- 12.09Central Córdoba de Santiago3:1
Head to head
- 23.03.2026Boca Juniors — Instituto2:0
- 29.07.2024Instituto — Boca Juniors0:0
- 20.03.2023Boca Juniors — Instituto2:3
Next matches
- Boca JuniorsVasco da Gama14 October · Copa Sudamericana5426191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- Defensa y JusticiaInstituto17 October · Liga Profesional353134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.2
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 4630231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 4528271The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 363331XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:1.1.8
- 323237XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:0.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →