English Premier League, round 8 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Ipswich Town — Nottingham Forest
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nottingham Forest are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nottingham Forest are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ipswich Town — Nottingham Forest What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Ipswich Town not to lose | 51% | |
| Nottingham Forest not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ipswich Town
- Ipswich Town goals
- Nottingham Forest goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Fulham2:1
- 19.09away · Everton0:1
- 15.09Arsenal2:4
- 12.09away · Crystal Palace3:2
- 04.09Liverpool0:2
- 11.10away · Crystal Palace1:3
- 19.09Coventry City0:1
- 12.09away · Aston Villa2:1
- 05.09Tottenham Hotspur0:0
- 29.08away · Liverpool2:2
Head to head
- 15.03.2025Ipswich Town — Nottingham Forest2:4
- 03.03.2025Nottingham Forest — Ipswich Town1:1
- 30.11.2024Nottingham Forest — Ipswich Town1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →