Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego
Legia Warszawa — Wisła Kraków
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Legia Warszawa to win (50%), came true.
Legia Warszawa are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Legia Warszawa are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Legia Warszawa — Wisła Kraków What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Legia Warszawa not to lose | 78% | |
| Wisła Kraków not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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Form
- 20.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
- 13.09Widzew Łódź1:1
- 05.09away · Motor Lublin3:2
- 28.08Śląsk Wrocław1:1
- 22.08away · Piast Gliwice1:1
- 18.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 11.09Jagiellonia Białystok2:0
- 05.09away · Korona Kielce1:1
- 29.08Wieczysta Kraków2:0
- 23.08away · Pogoń Szczecin2:2
Head to head
- 25.02.2022Legia Warszawa — Wisła Kraków2:1
- 29.08.2021Wisła Kraków — Legia Warszawa1:0
- 01.05.2021Legia Warszawa — Wisła Kraków0:0
- 12.12.2020Wisła Kraków — Legia Warszawa1:2
- 07.06.2020Wisła Kraków — Legia Warszawa1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | +10 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisła Kraków | 10 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 10 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
Next matches
- Widzew ŁódźWisła Kraków16 October · Ekstraklasa373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- CracoviaLegia Warszawa17 October · Ekstraklasa363035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4231271The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.4
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →