Swiss Super League, round 12 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Lugano — Basel
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lugano are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — Basel What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Lugano not to lose | 78% | |
| Basel not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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Form
Head to head
- 06.09.2026Basel — Lugano1:3
- 17.05.2026Lugano — Basel4:0
- 15.02.2026Basel — Lugano1:1
- 09.11.2025Basel — Lugano0:1
- 10.08.2025Lugano — Basel3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Lugano | 10 | 9 | +24 | 28 |
| 2, Championship round | Young Boys | 10 | 6 | +15 | 22 |
| 6, Championship round | Servette | 10 | 4 | +1 | 13 |
| 7, Relegation round | Basel | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 8, Relegation round | Luzern | 10 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
Swiss Super League on the same day
- Young BoysFC Zürichpreliminary6520151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.9
- LausanneThunpreliminary3827361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →