Ligue 1, round 7 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Lyon — Nice
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Lyon are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lyon are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lyon — Nice What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| Lyon not to lose | 82% | |
| Nice not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lyon
- Lyon goals
- Nice goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Lens1:2
- 19.09Rennes4:0
- 16.09away · Anderlecht2:1
- 12.09away · Paris FC0:0
- 04.09Auxerre3:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Lyon — Nice2:0
- 18.10.2025Nice — Lyon3:2
- 09.03.2025Nice — Lyon0:2
- 01.12.2024Lyon — Nice4:1
- 16.02.2024Lyon — Nice1:0
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 2025552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
- 4027321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →