English Premier League, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Manchester United — AFC Bournemouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Manchester United are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester United are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester United — AFC Bournemouth What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 75% | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester United
- Manchester United goals
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Atlético Madrid0:2
- 10.10Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
- 10.10away · Chelsea1:5
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
Head to head
- 20.03.2026AFC Bournemouth — Manchester United2:2
- 15.12.2025Manchester United — AFC Bournemouth4:4
- 27.04.2025AFC Bournemouth — Manchester United1:1
- 22.12.2024Manchester United — AFC Bournemouth0:3
- 13.04.2024AFC Bournemouth — Manchester United2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
Premier League on the same day
- Crystal PalaceNewcastle Unitedpreliminary3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Hull CityBrentfordpreliminary2030502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- SunderlandLeeds Unitedpreliminary3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →