Uzbekistan Super League, round 24 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK

Mashal Muborak — AGMK

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Model prediction for 15 October

Mashal Muborak15%
Draw22%
AGMK63%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

AGMK are clear favourites: 63% against 15% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 42%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings AGMK are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mashal Muborak — AGMK What is xG?0.7–1.8
Mashal Muborak not to lose37%
AGMK not to lose85%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes42%
Both teams to score: no58%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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Form

Mashal Muborak

  • 09.10away · Kokand 19120:3
  • 19.09Pakhtakor Tashkent1:2
  • 11.09away · Lokomotiv Tashkent0:3
  • 05.09away · Sogdiana2:5
  • 26.08Navbahor Namangan0:2

AGMK

  • 11.10Navbahor Namangan2:2
  • 20.09away · Sogdiana2:1
  • 09.09Pakhtakor Tashkent1:3
  • 03.09Xorazm1:0
  • 25.08away · Surkhon-20110:0

Head to head

  • 27.07.2026AGMK — Mashal Muborak2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6Buxoro23114835–31+437
7AGMK23106733–31+236
8Dinamo Samarkand2386934–36-230
15Bunyodkor Tashkent23711523–39-1622
16Mashal Muborak23112111–47-364

Season 2026

Full table

Uzbekistan Super League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →