A-League Men (Australia), round 2 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Melbourne Victory — Melbourne City FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Melbourne Victory are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Melbourne Victory — Melbourne City FC What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Melbourne Victory not to lose | 69% | |
| Melbourne City FC not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Melbourne Victory
- Melbourne Victory goals
- Melbourne City FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.05Sydney FC0:1
- 25.04away · Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:0
- 17.04Newcastle Jets2:2
- 11.04away · Auckland FC2:2
- 05.04Wellington Phoenix0:1
- 02.05away · Auckland FC1:1
- 26.04Adelaide United1:2
- 18.04away · Brisbane Roar FC3:2
- 12.04Wellington Phoenix2:0
- 07.04Central Coast Mariners2:1
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Melbourne City FC — Melbourne Victory1:3
- 20.12.2025Melbourne City FC — Melbourne Victory0:1
- 08.11.2025Melbourne Victory — Melbourne City FC0:2
- 31.05.2025Melbourne City FC — Melbourne Victory1:0
- 22.02.2025Melbourne Victory — Melbourne City FC2:2
A-League on the same day
- Newcastle JetsMacarthur FCpreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:23.7
- Western Sydney Wanderers FCAuckland FCpreliminary3027432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →