Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Nacional — Braga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Braga are clear favourites: 55% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Braga are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nacional — Braga What is xG? | 1.0–1.7 | |
| Nacional not to lose | 45% | |
| Braga not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Rio Ave2:3
- 19.09Famalicão0:4
- 12.09Alverca1:3
- 05.09away · Sporting CP0:2
- 30.08Estrela da Amadora2:3
- 09.10Sporting CP1:3
- 20.09away · Santa Clara0:0
- 14.09Estoril1:0
- 10.09away · Estrela da Amadora1:2
- 05.09away · Alverca2:1
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Nacional — Braga1:2
- 23.11.2025Braga — Nacional4:2
- 28.09.2025Braga — Nacional0:1
- 21.02.2025Braga — Nacional1:0
- 20.09.2024Nacional — Braga0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 8 | 1 | -14 | 4 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- EstorilMoreirensepreliminary4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Rio AveFamalicãopreliminary2630442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- Sporting CPAcadémico Viseupreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →