Uruguayan Primera Division, round 11 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Nacional (URU) — Deportivo Maldonado
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Nacional (URU) are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional (URU) are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nacional (URU) — Deportivo Maldonado What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Nacional (URU) not to lose | 76% | |
| Deportivo Maldonado not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nacional (URU)
- Nacional (URU) goals
- Deportivo Maldonado goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Central Español1:0
- 06.10Montevideo City Torque2:0
- 26.09away · Cerro Largo2:0
- 20.09Defensor Sporting3:2
- 12.09away · Montevideo Wanderers1:1
- 10.10Liverpool FC1:1
- 04.10Central Español3:0
- 27.09away · Montevideo City Torque2:0
- 20.09Cerro Largo2:0
- 13.09away · Defensor Sporting0:1
Head to head
- 01.06.2026Deportivo Maldonado — Nacional (URU)3:0
- 12.04.2026Deportivo Maldonado — Nacional (URU)4:2
- 17.11.2024Nacional (URU) — Deportivo Maldonado5:2
- 21.05.2024Deportivo Maldonado — Nacional (URU)0:2
- 24.10.2023Nacional (URU) — Deportivo Maldonado1:3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →