Belarusian Premier League · Saturday, 24 October, 15:00 MSK

Naftan — Isloch

Model prediction for 24 October

Naftan16%

Draw24%

Isloch59%

Model estimate at 06:53 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Isloch are clear favourites: 59% against 16% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Isloch are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Naftan — Isloch What is xG?		0.9–1.9
Naftan not to lose		41%
Isloch not to lose		84%
No draw		76%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Naftan
Naftan goals
Isloch goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Naftan

10.10Belshina4:1
19.09away · Slavia Mozyr1:0
13.09away · BATE2:2
06.09FC Minsk0:3
02.09away · Din. Minsk1:5

Isloch

11.10away · Vitebsk0:0
19.09Neman1:2
13.09FC Gomel2:1
07.09Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1:1
03.09BATE2:0

Head to head

12.06.2026Isloch — Naftan3:1
29.08.2025Naftan — Isloch2:2
19.04.2025Isloch — Naftan3:0
27.10.2024Isloch — Naftan3:0
01.06.2024Naftan — Isloch2:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Europa League or Conference League	Din. Minsk	22	14	4	4	40–18	+22	46
3, Europa League or Conference League	Isloch	23	13	7	3	37–18	+19	46
4	Dynamo Brest	24	13	4	7	39–23	+16	43
14, Relegation play-off	Belshina	23	5	6	12	23–40	-17	21
15, Relegation	Naftan	24	4	5	15	24–55	-31	17
16, Relegation	Dnepr Mogilev	24	2	10	12	22–39	-17	16

Season 2026

Full table

Belarusian Premier League on the same day

13:00
FC GomelDin. Minskpreliminary
272746
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
17:00
BATEBelshinapreliminary
562221
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
19:30
VitebskML Vitebskpreliminary
212653
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →