Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Friday, 9 October, 01:30 MSK · Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Náutico — Novorizontino

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true

Náutico24%

Draw27%

Novorizontino49%

Model estimate at 01:03 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Novorizontino to win (49%), came true.

Novorizontino are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings Novorizontino are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Náutico — Novorizontino What is xG?		1.1–1.6
Náutico not to lose		51%
Novorizontino not to lose		76%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Náutico
Náutico goals
Novorizontino goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Náutico

03.10away · Fortaleza1:1
26.09Sport Recife3:1
22.09away · Cuiabá0:3
16.09Operário-PR3:3
10.09away · América-MG1:2

Novorizontino

02.10Goiás3:0
26.09São Bernardo0:0
19.09away · Ceará1:2
14.09Cuiabá1:1
10.09away · Botafogo SP3:1

Head to head

15.06.2026Novorizontino — Náutico2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	46–31	+15	61
2, Promotion	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	59–28	+31	60
3, Promotion play-offs	Juventude	33	17	9	7	39–21	+18	60
13	Athletic Club MG	33	10	13	10	40–39	+1	43
14	Náutico	33	11	9	13	39–42	-3	42
15	Ceará	33	11	9	13	35–40	-5	42

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

23:30
NáuticoVila Nova11 October · Brasileirao Serie B
412930
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
01:00
NovorizontinoPonte Preta13 October · Brasileirao Serie B
8983
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:0.3.2

Brasileirao Serie B on the same day

01:30
CearáCriciúma
363133
XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 1:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →