Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Novorizontino — Ponte Preta
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:1Came true
In short
Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Novorizontino to win (89%), came true.
Novorizontino are clear favourites: 89% against 3% for the opponent, draw 8%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 36%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Novorizontino are about 1.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Novorizontino — Ponte Preta What is xG? | 2.7–0.5 | |
| Novorizontino not to lose | 97% | |
| Ponte Preta not to lose | 11% | |
| No draw | 92% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 36% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 64% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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- Handicap Novorizontino
- Novorizontino goals
- Ponte Preta goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 09.10away · Náutico2:0
- 02.10Goiás3:0
- 26.09São Bernardo0:0
- 19.09away · Ceará1:2
- 14.09Cuiabá1:1
- 07.10Juventude0:2
- 03.10away · Cuiabá0:2
- 30.09away · Botafogo SP0:2
- 20.09CRB1:0
- 16.09away · Londrina0:6
Head to head
- 23.06.2026Ponte Preta — Novorizontino0:2
- 01.10.2024Novorizontino — Ponte Preta2:1
- 15.06.2024Ponte Preta — Novorizontino1:0
- 28.10.2023Novorizontino — Ponte Preta2:0
- 03.07.2023Ponte Preta — Novorizontino1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | +15 | 61 |
| 2, Promotion | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | +31 | 60 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Juventude | 33 | 17 | +18 | 60 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
| 20, Relegation | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | -55 | 13 |
Next matches
- Ponte PretaAtlético-GO17 October · Brasileirao Serie B1622622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Vila NovaNovorizontino19 October · Brasileirao Serie B3130382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.1
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 6721111The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 4329281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 89% will not happen in roughly 11 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →