Paraguayan Primera Division · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco
Olimpia — Nacional (PAR)
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Olimpia to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.
Olimpia are clear favourites: 49% against 22% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Olimpia are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Olimpia — Nacional (PAR) What is xG? | 1.3–0.9 | |
| Olimpia not to lose | 78% | |
| Nacional (PAR) not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Olimpia
- Olimpia goals
- Nacional (PAR) goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 29.09away · Libertad1:0
- 20.09away · Sportivo San Lorenzo3:0
- 13.09Luqueño3:0
- 06.09away · Sportivo Trinidense2:1
- 03.09Guaraní1:1
- 26.09Sportivo Ameliano1:1
- 19.092 de Mayo3:0
- 14.09away · Rubio Ñú1:0
- 08.09away · Cerro Porteño0:1
- 02.09Libertad3:0
Head to head
- 30.07.2026Nacional (PAR) — Olimpia2:0
- 05.04.2026Olimpia — Nacional (PAR)3:0
- 09.02.2026Nacional (PAR) — Olimpia1:2
- 14.09.2025Nacional (PAR) — Olimpia4:1
- 06.07.2025Olimpia — Nacional (PAR)1:1
Next matches
- Rubio ÑúOlimpia11 October · Paraguayan Primera1726572The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- Nacional (PAR)Recoleta13 October · Paraguayan Primera6423131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →