CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores, playoff · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Palmeiras — Fluminense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Palmeiras are clear favourites: 66% against 12% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Palmeiras are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Palmeiras — Fluminense What is xG? | 1.9–0.7 | |
| Palmeiras not to lose | 88% | |
| Fluminense not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Palmeiras
- Palmeiras goals
- Fluminense goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Corinthians4:1
- 09.10Bahia1:0
- 20.09away · Grêmio0:0
- 17.09away · LDU de Quito2:3
- 13.09São Paulo2:0
- 11.10away · Flamengo0:1
- 09.10Coritiba4:0
- 20.09away · Corinthians3:1
- 16.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético-MG1:3
Head to head
- 15.08.2026Fluminense — Palmeiras3:2
- 26.02.2026Palmeiras — Fluminense2:1
- 23.11.2025Palmeiras — Fluminense0:0
- 24.07.2025Fluminense — Palmeiras1:2
- 08.12.2024Palmeiras — Fluminense0:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →