Brazilian Serie B, round 35 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Ponte Preta — Fortaleza
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Fortaleza are clear favourites: 64% against 14% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fortaleza are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ponte Preta — Fortaleza What is xG? | 0.8–1.8 | |
| Ponte Preta not to lose | 36% | |
| Fortaleza not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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Form
- 13.10away · Novorizontino1:5
- 07.10Juventude0:2
- 03.10away · Cuiabá0:2
- 30.09away · Botafogo SP0:2
- 20.09CRB1:0
- 12.10CRB2:2
- 08.10away · América-MG1:0
- 03.10Náutico1:1
- 28.09Athletic Club MG2:2
- 21.09away · Londrina2:1
Head to head
- 03.07.2026Fortaleza — Ponte Preta2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Juventude | 33 | 17 | +18 | 60 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 33 | 15 | +10 | 57 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | +6 | 56 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
| 20, Relegation | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | -55 | 13 |
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- CRBLondrinapreliminary6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →