Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Stadion Radomiaka
Radomiak Radom — Motor Lublin
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2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Radomiak Radom to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Radomiak Radom are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Radomiak Radom — Motor Lublin What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| Radomiak Radom not to lose | 71% | |
| Motor Lublin not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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- Handicap Radomiak Radom
- Radomiak Radom goals
- Motor Lublin goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 20.09away · Lech Poznań1:5
- 14.09Piast Gliwice0:2
- 05.09away · Widzew Łódź0:0
- 29.08Cracovia2:1
- 23.08Zagłębie Lubin0:0
- 19.09Górnik Zabrze0:0
- 11.09away · Raków Częstochowa1:2
- 05.09Legia Warszawa2:3
- 29.08Piast Gliwice0:2
- 22.08away · Korona Kielce1:1
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Radomiak Radom — Motor Lublin1:1
- 29.09.2025Motor Lublin — Radomiak Radom2:2
- 24.05.2025Radomiak Radom — Motor Lublin2:3
- 02.12.2024Motor Lublin — Radomiak Radom1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 10 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 16, Relegation | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | -14 | 8 |
| 17, Relegation | Śląsk Wrocław | 10 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Next matches
- Motor LublinŚląsk Wrocław17 October · Ekstraklasa4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Wisła PłockRadomiak Radom19 October · Ekstraklasa4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4527271The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →