UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Red Bull Arena
RB Leipzig — PSV Eindhoven
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, RB Leipzig to win (39%), came true.
Evenly matched: RB Leipzig 39%, PSV Eindhoven 35%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- RB Leipzig: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: RB Leipzig — PSV Eindhoven What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| RB Leipzig not to lose | 65% | |
| PSV Eindhoven not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig goals
- PSV Eindhoven goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
- 20.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 13.09Hamburger SV5:0
- 10.09away · Como1:4
- 05.09away · Werder Bremen1:3
- 09.10SC Heerenveen2:0
- 20.09away · FC Twente2:3
- 13.09Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- 10.09Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
- 05.09away · Ajax3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Sabah FK | 2 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Viking | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 |
Next matches
- ADO Den HaagPSV Eindhoven17 October · Eredivisie815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.8
- Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig17 October · Bundesliga801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.4
Champions League on the same day
- 4226321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 3627372The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6222171The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
- 801471The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
- 5125241The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 4027341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 2425512The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 1219692The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →