Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Rio Ave — Famalicão
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Famalicão are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 30%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Famalicão are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rio Ave — Famalicão What is xG? | 1.0–1.3 | |
| Rio Ave not to lose | 56% | |
| Famalicão not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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- Handicap Rio Ave
- Rio Ave goals
- Famalicão goals
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Form
- 11.10Nacional3:2
- 19.09away · Alverca0:1
- 14.09Estrela da Amadora3:3
- 06.09away · Santa Clara0:4
- 28.08Sporting CP0:4
- 12.10Alverca1:4
- 19.09away · Nacional4:0
- 13.09Sporting CP1:1
- 05.09away · Estrela da Amadora2:2
- 30.08Gil Vicente0:0
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Rio Ave — Famalicão0:0
- 28.09.2025Famalicão — Rio Ave0:0
- 10.03.2025Famalicão — Rio Ave1:0
- 04.10.2024Rio Ave — Famalicão1:1
- 16.02.2024Famalicão — Rio Ave2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- EstorilMoreirensepreliminary4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- NacionalBragapreliminary1827552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Sporting CPAcadémico Viseupreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →