Norwegian Eliteserien, round 23 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Lerkendal Stadion
Rosenborg — Sandefjord
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Rosenborg to win (64%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 64% fails in about 36 matches out of 100 on average.
Rosenborg are clear favourites: 64% against 15% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rosenborg are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rosenborg — Sandefjord What is xG? | 2.2–1.1 | |
| Rosenborg not to lose | 85% | |
| Sandefjord not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Rosenborg
- Rosenborg goals
- Sandefjord goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Kristiansund3:1
- 12.09Tromsø5:3
- 05.09Hamarkameratene4:0
- 30.08away · Bodø/Glimt2:4
- 14.08Viking2:1
- 20.09Start3:0
- 14.09away · Bodø/Glimt2:3
- 04.09Viking1:1
- 30.08Brann0:0
- 16.08away · Sarpsborg 082:1
Head to head
- 18.04.2026Sandefjord — Rosenborg0:0
- 29.10.2025Rosenborg — Sandefjord1:1
- 06.07.2025Sandefjord — Rosenborg2:0
- 29.09.2024Sandefjord — Rosenborg0:1
- 01.04.2024Rosenborg — Sandefjord2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Molde | 22 | 11 | +12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | +9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrøm | 22 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 11 | Hamarkameratene | 22 | 7 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | -6 | 24 |
| 13 | Vålerenga | 22 | 6 | -10 | 23 |
Next matches
- Sarpsborg 08Rosenborg18 October · Eliteserien3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- SandefjordLillestrøm18 October · Eliteserien3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
Eliteserien on the same day
- 92621The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:0.4.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →