Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Sanjoanense — Nacional
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Nacional are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sanjoanense — Nacional What is xG? | 1.0–2.0 | |
| Sanjoanense not to lose | 39% | |
| Nacional not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sanjoanense
- Sanjoanense goals
- Nacional goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Rio Ave2:3
- 19.09Famalicão0:4
- 12.09Alverca1:3
- 05.09away · Sporting CP0:2
- 30.08Estrela da Amadora2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- 1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- 3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 7018111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- 2926442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 1622622The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →