Argentine Liga Profesional · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Estadio Eva Perón de Junín
Sarmiento — River Plate
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
River Plate are clear favourites: 47% against 23% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings River Plate are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sarmiento — River Plate What is xG? | 1.0–1.4 | |
| Sarmiento not to lose | 53% | |
| River Plate not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sarmiento
- Sarmiento goals
- River Plate goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Aldosivi3:1
- 19.09away · Racing Club1:3
- 13.09Belgrano1:1
- 04.09away · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2:0
- 29.08away · Unión1:4
- 11.10Estudiantes de Río Cuarto1:0
- 20.09Huracán1:2
- 12.09away · Atlético Tucumán2:1
- 07.09Independiente Rivadavia3:1
- 30.08away · Banfield3:2
Head to head
- 16.03.2026River Plate — Sarmiento2:0
- 13.10.2025River Plate — Sarmiento0:1
- 06.04.2025Sarmiento — River Plate1:1
- 29.07.2024River Plate — Sarmiento1:0
- 20.03.2023Sarmiento — River Plate0:2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →