Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 9 · Friday, 16 October, MSK
SC Heerenveen — Excelsior
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 October
In short
SC Heerenveen are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings SC Heerenveen are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SC Heerenveen — Excelsior What is xG? | 1.9–1.2 | |
| SC Heerenveen not to lose | 78% | |
| Excelsior not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap SC Heerenveen
- SC Heerenveen goals
- Excelsior goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · PSV Eindhoven0:2
- 19.09away · Sparta Rotterdam4:0
- 13.09Telstar0:0
- 06.09AZ Alkmaar2:3
- 30.08away · Willem II2:2
- 11.10FC Groningen1:5
- 19.09away · Ajax2:2
- 13.09FC Utrecht1:2
- 08.09away · NEC Nijmegen2:2
- 05.09away · Willem II3:0
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Excelsior — SC Heerenveen1:2
- 04.10.2025SC Heerenveen — Excelsior2:1
- 19.01.2024Excelsior — SC Heerenveen3:0
- 23.09.2023SC Heerenveen — Excelsior0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →