Egyptian Premier League, round 6 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Borg El Arab Stadium
Smouha SC — Ghazl Al Mahalla
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Smouha SC to win (44%), came true.
Smouha SC are clear favourites: 44% against 23% for the opponent, draw 33%.
The model expects few goals: 1.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 23%, both teams to score — 31%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Smouha SC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Smouha SC — Ghazl Al Mahalla What is xG? | 1.0–0.7 | |
| Smouha SC not to lose | 77% | |
| Ghazl Al Mahalla not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 31% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 69% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 23% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 77% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Smouha SC
- Smouha SC goals
- Ghazl Al Mahalla goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.09away · Tala'ea El Gaish1:0
- 08.09Ceramica Cleopatra0:2
- 03.09away · Al Ahly SC0:1
- 26.08Asyut Petroleum0:0
- 22.08away · Al Masry SC0:1
- 16.09Zamalek SC0:1
- 07.09away · National Bank1:3
- 01.09Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI0:0
- 27.08away · Modern Sport FC0:2
- 22.08Pyramids FC0:3
Head to head
- 16.08.2025Ghazl Al Mahalla — Smouha SC0:0
- 11.04.2025Ghazl Al Mahalla — Smouha SC1:0
- 26.12.2024Smouha SC — Ghazl Al Mahalla2:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Masry SC | 6 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Tala'ea El Gaish | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl Al Mahalla | 6 | 0 | -9 | 1 |
Next matches
- El Gouna FCSmouha SC19 October · Egyptian Premier League363629XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.5
- Ghazl Al MahallaAl Ittihad Alexandria21 October · Egyptian Premier League · preliminary313435XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.8
Egyptian Premier League on the same day
- 373330XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.0
- 4232271The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.1
- 5926151The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →