2. Bundesliga, round 10 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
St. Pauli — 1. FC Nürnberg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
St. Pauli are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings St. Pauli are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St. Pauli — 1. FC Nürnberg What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| St. Pauli not to lose | 74% | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap St. Pauli
- St. Pauli goals
- 1. FC Nürnberg goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Karlsruher SC2:0
- 20.09away · Energie Cottbus1:1
- 12.09Wolfsburg1:0
- 04.09away · Arminia Bielefeld2:2
- 30.08Kaiserslautern1:2
- 10.10Wolfsburg4:4
- 19.09away · Karlsruher SC1:0
- 11.09Hannover 962:1
- 05.09away · Holstein Kiel2:2
- 29.08Arminia Bielefeld4:1
Head to head
- 16.03.20241. FC Nürnberg — St. Pauli0:2
- 07.10.2023St. Pauli — 1. FC Nürnberg5:1
- 29.01.20231. FC Nürnberg — St. Pauli0:1
- 16.07.2022St. Pauli — 1. FC Nürnberg3:2
- 29.04.2022St. Pauli — 1. FC Nürnberg1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- Greuther FürthHolstein Kielpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Hannover 96Dynamo Dresdenpreliminary5823191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →