Austrian Bundesliga, round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Sturm Graz — Grazer AK
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Sturm Graz are clear favourites: 65% against 13% for the opponent, draw 22%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sturm Graz — Grazer AK What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 87% | |
| Grazer AK not to lose | 35% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sturm Graz
- Sturm Graz goals
- Grazer AK goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Austria Wien2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
- 10.10Salzburg0:0
- 19.09Austria Wien2:2
- 12.09away · Altach2:1
- 29.08Wolfsberger AC0:0
- 21.08away · Ried0:1
Head to head
- 07.12.2025Sturm Graz — Grazer AK2:1
- 30.08.2025Grazer AK — Sturm Graz0:3
- 09.03.2025Grazer AK — Sturm Graz1:2
- 19.10.2024Sturm Graz — Grazer AK5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 5, Championship round | Ried | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6, Championship round | Hartberg | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7, Relegation round | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 8, Relegation round | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- 7020101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 4229281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →