Austrian Bundesliga, round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Sturm Graz — Ried
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sturm Graz are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sturm Graz — Ried What is xG? | 2.1–1.1 | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 84% | |
| Ried not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sturm Graz
- Sturm Graz goals
- Ried goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Austria Wien2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
- 10.10away · WSG Tirol2:1
- 20.09Wolfsberger AC4:1
- 11.09Salzburg1:1
- 30.08away · Hartberg2:3
- 21.08Grazer AK1:0
Head to head
- 08.02.2026Sturm Graz — Ried1:0
- 16.08.2025Ried — Sturm Graz1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 5, Championship round | Ried | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6, Championship round | Hartberg | 8 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- LASKSalzburgpreliminary4428291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →