English Premier League, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Sunderland — Leeds United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Leeds United are slightly stronger: 39% against 31%, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Leeds United are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sunderland — Leeds United What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Sunderland not to lose | 61% | |
| Leeds United not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sunderland
- Sunderland goals
- Leeds United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Brighton & Hove Albion0:2
- 20.09away · Manchester City3:5
- 16.09AZ Alkmaar1:0
- 12.09Arsenal0:2
- 08.09Hull City1:0
- 10.10away · Arsenal1:2
- 20.09Crystal Palace0:0
- 14.09Newcastle United4:1
- 09.09away · Chelsea3:6
- 05.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
Head to head
- 03.03.2026Leeds United — Sunderland0:1
- 28.12.2025Sunderland — Leeds United1:1
- 17.02.2025Leeds United — Sunderland2:1
- 04.10.2024Sunderland — Leeds United2:2
- 09.04.2024Leeds United — Sunderland0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
Premier League on the same day
- Crystal PalaceNewcastle Unitedpreliminary3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Hull CityBrentfordpreliminary2030502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouthpreliminary4828251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →